How the hell should I know? As you probably know, if you are interested in German politics, Angela Merkel, the longtime chancellor declared some years ago, that she wouldn't run for another term in the federal election in September 2021. Till now it is not clear, who will become her successor. At the moment, her party (CDU/CSU) is significantly leading the polls and it seems likely, that the Union (as we call her party often) will provide the next chancellor. Who will that be? This weekend will give us a hint.

Tomorrow starts the digital party convention to vote for the next leader of the CDU. There are three mayor candidates: Armin Laschet, Friedrich Merz, and Norbert Röttgen. The process was heavyly delated by the outbreak of the Corona-Virus. Originally the vote was planned in April 2020, but they adjourned the congress in the hope to be able to meet in person later. This didn't work out, and now they debate and vote online. Back then Armin Laschet was the favorit. He is the Prime Minister of North-Rhine Westphalia, the biggest state in Germany. As the only candidate, he also chose a running mate, the Federal Secretary for Health, Jens Spahn. While the young and very conservative Spahn gained profile and respect during the Pandemic, Armin Laschet's work in this difficult time is rated poorly. He often lacked consistency and is wildly seen as light-weighted. Regarding policy, Laschet is a moderate. For instance, he supported the refugee-politic of Angela Merkel, which is the topic, that is like a watershed for conservatives. If he become chancellor, we would probably see a lot of continuation.

Friedrich Merz seems to be the new frontrunner (we don't have reliable numbers, since only about a thousand delegates are allowed to vote and we don't know, who they favour). He was an early rival of Angela Merkel before she became chancellor, but he lost the fight for power against her in 2002. He then left politics to work as a lawyer in a private equity company. He is very conservative and it feels like he wants back to the time, when Helmut Kohl was chancellor. 1997, he voted in the parliament against a law, that prohibited rape in marriage. He evolved his position on this matter, but it gives you a hint about his background. Some weeks ago, he gave an interview, where he showed homophobic views. He also is convinced that is was a misstake by Merkel to keep the borders open in 2015 and let the refugees in. Even if he is not a right wing radical and wouldn't cooperate with the wright wing party AfD, he would create a more hostile enviroment for emigrants and put more emphasize on German culture. Before he had left politics, he coined the word German "Leitkultur", which means, that specific German values should form the German society. He felt short in the attempt to define this values, but the term is now an important selling point for the extremist AfD. In terms of economy, Merz would also mean a sharp turn in policy. He is a hardcore liberal and wants to cut taxes deeply and problably to also cut social security. He often talks about "Mittelstand" (which essentially means small businesses), but he, who is a millionaire, regards himself as "Mittelstand" and it is pretty clear, that he is out of touch with the every day life of most Germans. If you follow the American politics closely, I would compare him with a figure like Mitt Romney. Things must be really bad to make him look good ;-)

The third candidate, Norbert Röttgen, is clearly the underdog but became recently the personal favorite of many journalists and educated people. He was once very close to Angela Merkel, but felt out of favour after some severe strategic misstakes during his run for Prime Minister in North Rhine-Westphalia (where he was once the victorious opponent of Armin Laschet in the local CDU) and was sacked by Merkel as Federal Secretary for Environment in 2012. Other than Merz, he remained in politics and gained high renown as a foreign policy expert. But he felt out of sight for the most and it was a suprise that he run for the leadership. He is very smart, maybe sometimes too smart, which led to his fall some years ago. Since he remained apart from the spotlight, it is hard to tell, how much he learned from his former misstakes. But his campaign is very optimistic, measured and friendly. He has nothing to lose and this gives his run a sense of easiness. Regarding policy, he is like Laschet a moderate, maybe a bit more liberal in economic terms, but Germany surely wouldn't change much.

So, who will win? Still hard to tell. I don't think, that anyone of these candidates will win more than 50 percent of the votes in the first round, hence there will be a run-off. I'm pretty sure Merz will be the frontrunner in this first round. The CDU is a divided party and he will get the votes of the right wing of the party. He will be strong among delegates of the party youth and the eastern states. I'm still thinking that Armin Laschet will be his opponent in the run-off. He has the higher name-recognition and Röttgen is besides the foreign policy a bit of a black box. But Laschet's perfomance in the last year was relatively bad and this could give Röttgen the edge. In the run-off, I would bet on the moderate, either Laschet or Röttgen. Not so much because of their strength, but because many people in the CDU want to prevent a shift to the right with Friedrich Merz. He has as strong adversaries as he has supporters. But this will be a close decision. I wouldn't be suprised, if it become 52-48 - and everybody, who follows the British politics, can tell you: That are evil numbers.

I keep you posted and after the decision, I will talk about the other contenders for the chancellorship. Stay save and healthy!